The oil rebound bounce has slowed; OPEC cuts and Fed minutes are in the spotlight

    TOP1 Markets 2023-11-21 10:37:55

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    Oil prices dipped slightly in Asian trade on Tuesday after rising dramatically over the previous three days, as investors remained cautious ahead of additional Federal Reserve hints and speculation about production curbs by key suppliers.  


    Crude prices had risen by $5 a barrel in the previous three sessions after falling to four-month lows the previous week. Price pressure was mostly caused by a spate of negative economic reports from throughout the world, which increased concerns about weakening demand.


    However, the drop in oil prices has fueled anticipation that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries would cut output even more when it meets on November 26. According to media sources, certain members of the production group, especially Russia and Saudi Arabia, are considering extending their present supply limitations till 2024. 


    According to analysts, any additional output cuts by the two will likely compress supplies and sustain prices until 2024. Earlier this year, Saudi and Russian production curbs were a major source of support for oil prices, allowing them to weather headwinds from weak economic signs.


    Brent oil prices slid 0.2% to $82.13 per barrel by 20:48 ET (01:48 GMT), while West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 0.1% to $77.77 per barrel. After three days of high gains, both contracts witnessed some profit taking. 


    Markets were now looking for solid signs that OPEC intends to cut supplies. Prior to that, significant economic signals, particularly from the Federal Reserve, were in the spotlight.


    Fed minutes are awaited, and the dollar has been pummeled by rate pause bets. 

    Weakness in the dollar, which fell to two-and-a-half-year lows, was also a big support for oil and other commodities priced in the greenback.


    The dollar fell as traders priced in expectations that the Fed was done raising interest rates and might begin lowering rates as early as March 2024. 


    The minutes of the Fed's late-October meeting, which were due later on Tuesday, were expected to throw further light on this view, especially given the Fed's somewhat dovish signals during the meeting. 


    However, while a less hawkish Fed is likely to boost oil consumption, signals of a quickly cooling economy have traders concerned about a U.S. economic slowdown next year, which may significantly impact demand. 


    Concerns about China's sluggish economic recovery also weighed on oil prices, especially as recent statistics showed no progress through October.


    Data indicating record-high US oil production, combined with increased output by other OPEC members, indicated that petroleum markets were not as tight as previously anticipated.


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